Unofficial work sample. Not affiliated with PrizePicks. Lines and results are real; players and entries are simulated.

Game Ops Console · NFL

Payout Lab

PrizePicks' payout table decides who each entry is priced for. Change a payout on the slip below and see how often a player must win to break even, and how much PrizePicks keeps.

Real dataPayouts from prizepicks.com · checked Sep 22How this is computed →

Entry slip: the payout table

Live payouts

Type a new payout for any entry. Needs per pick is the win rate a player needs on every pick to get their entry fee back over time. Keeps is PrizePicks' hold: the share of entry fees it keeps after payouts.

Swipe the tables sideways to see what PrizePicks keeps.

Power Play · every pick must hit

Power Play · every pick must hit: payout for a perfect entry, breakeven per pick, and what PrizePicks keeps
EntryPaysNeeds per pickKeeps vs 50% playerKeeps vs 56% player
2 picksx57.7%25.0%5.9%
3 picksx55.0%25.0%−5.4%
4 picksOut of linex56.2%37.5%1.7%
5 picksx54.9%37.5%−10.1%
6 picksx54.7%41.4%−15.7%

Flex Play · pays on most hits

Flex Play · pays on most hits: payout for a perfect entry, breakeven per pick, and what PrizePicks keeps
EntryPaysNeeds per pickKeeps vs 50% playerKeeps vs 56% player
3 picksx57.7%25.0%5.9%
4 picksx55.0%25.0%−5.4%
5 picksx54.3%25.0%−11.9%
6 picksCheapest to beatx54.2%32.8%−17.6%

Flex Play's smaller payouts stay at the live table (a 6-pick Flex Play pays 2x for 5 of 6 and 0.4x for 4 of 6). A 3-pick Flex Play (3x, or 1x for 2 of 3) works out to the same breakeven as a 2-pick Power Play, and a 4-pick Flex Play to the same as a 3-pick Power Play. That match is real, not a typo. Picks are treated as independent here; the stack tool below drops that.

What PrizePicks keeps, by player skill

2-pick Power Play4-pick Power Play6-pick Power Play6-pick Flex Play
-50%0%50%45%50%55%60%Player's win rate per pickBelow 0: the player wins2 Power4 Power6 Flex6 Power

Longer entries lean harder on skill. A 6-pick Power Play keeps 41% against a coin-flipper but starts losing money once a player wins 54.7% of picks. Long entries are where skilled players cost the most.

Same-game stacks: picks that win together

0 means the picks are independent. A QB and his receiver on the same entry are linked.

Independent picksLinked picks (0.15)
Independent
Hits out of 3
Linked
Hits out of 3

PrizePicks keeps 15.6% when the picks are independent and −6.9% when they're linked.

Linking picks doesn't change any one pick's chance. It pushes entries to the extremes: more that miss everything and more that hit everything. Power Plays pay only when everything hits, so here a linked stack costs PrizePicks 22.5 points of hold. In Weeks 1–2, the simulated stacking group left PrizePicks 12% of entry fees instead of the 26% expected (Player Groups).