Player Groups

1,000 simulated players in four groups, each picking from the real Weeks 1–2 lines and graded on the real box scores. It shows which kinds of players cost PrizePicks money, and how fast Game Ops can tell a skilled player from a lucky one.

Real lines · simulated playersHow this is computed →

What each group costs PrizePicks

Group	How they pick	Players	Share of entry fees	Picks won	Average CLV	Expected hold	Actual hold
Casual	2 to 6 picks, 78% More, drawn to featured players	700	34%	48.8%	49.9%	28.6%	33.6%
Stacker	Same-team QB + receiver Mores	150	13%	45.6%	49.7%	26.0%	12.2%
Line shopper	Takes the side where PrizePicks and Underdog differ	100	23%	51.8%	52.4%	17.0%	23.7%
Sharp	The fair side of lines beatable a day before kickoff	50	30%	54.9%	54.2%	4.9%	−32.4%
All players	$184.9K in entry fees	1000	100%				8.9%

Expected holdActual holdActual, paid out more than taken in

Casual players are the business: PrizePicks expects to keep 29% of their entry fees. Sharps were expected to leave only 4.9%, and here they were paid 32% more than they put in. That swing is mostly luck: 50 accounts picking the same few dozen lines win and lose together. Stackers won fewer picks (45.6%) yet left only 12%, because same-team Mores hit together and Power Plays pay on exactly that.

Key

Hold:: the share of entry fees PrizePicks keeps after payouts. Negative means it paid out more than it took in.
Expected hold:: what PrizePicks should keep, priced from each pick's fair chance at kickoff.
CLV:: closing line value: the fair chance, at kickoff, of the side a player picked. Above 50% means the market moved their way.
Sharp:: a skilled player who finds lines the books disagree with.

How fast can Game Ops spot a sharp?

Sharps flagged by CLVSharps flagged by wins and lossesCasuals wrongly flagged by CLV

Wins and losses flag only 10% of sharps after 100 picks and 69% after 800: when the real edge is about 5 points, luck drowns it out. CLV flags 100% by 25 picks. One caution: this simulation defines sharps with the same market prices CLV uses, so real accounts will take longer. The order holds: CLV first, results second.

The flag rule, tested

Flag an account when its average CLV reaches a threshold after at least 25 graded picks. Scored against the group each simulated player really belongs to.

Flag at CLV	Accounts flagged	Right when flagged	Sharps caught	Line shoppers flagged
52% or more	139	36%	100%	89
53% or moreRecommended	55	91%	100%	5
54% or more	40	100%	80%	0
55% or more	0	–	0%	0

At 53% the rule catches 100% of sharps, is right 91% of the time, and flags 0 casual players. Lower, line shoppers flood the queue (89 at 52%). Their edge comes from PrizePicks and Underdog posting different lines, which is a pricing fix, not an account action. Higher, sharps slip through.

Why real accounts will be noisier

Every simulated player draws from one shared two-week board, so their CLV is steadier than a real account's. Expect to need more graded picks before flagging. The ranking (CLV before results, pricing fixes before account limits) should still hold.