Line Recap · Weeks 1–2
Every PrizePicks standard line from Weeks 1–2 (31 games, 1,001 lines), recorded three days, one day, and minutes before kickoff, then graded on the final box score. It shows how many lines were beatable and whether they were fixed in time.
A beatable line's week
T-72hFirst snapshot, three days out
Each PrizePicks line is recorded next to whatever sportsbook prices exist at that moment.Then:T-24hOne day out, 47 lines beatable
Their fair side went on to win 58.5% of the time. Every other line: 50.7%. The warning was there a day early.Then:Kickoff13 of 47 fixed, 70 beatable
Only 13 of the 47 moved toward the books. The count still grew to 70, because new gaps opened in the last 24 hours. Those 70 won on their fair side 53.1% of the time.
Lines that moved between one day out and kickoff
About 52% of yardage lines moved at all in the last day, but the moves weren't aimed at the beatable ones. Receptions is the clearest case: 4 of 26 beatable lines moved, against almost none of the rest. Lines do move; the moves just aren't aimed at the lines that leak money.
Is the fair chance right?
The best test is goblin lines (easier lines that pay less) and demon lines (harder lines that pay more), because their fair chances range from 18% to 71%.
| Line type | Stat | Lines | Won | Fair chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| demon | Rec Yds | 1,404 | 27.4% | 26.6% |
| demon | Rush Yds | 675 | 26.5% | 26.5% |
| demon | Receptions | 642 | 17.3% | 18.2% |
| demon | Pass Yds | 244 | 40.6% | 39.8% |
| goblin | Rec Yds | 984 | 68.3% | 67.4% |
| goblin | Rush Yds | 462 | 67.3% | 67.5% |
| goblin | Receptions | 318 | 68.2% | 71.2% |
| goblin | Pass Yds | 246 | 70.7% | 71.4% |
Across 4,975 goblin and demon lines, results landed within 0.8 points of the fair chance on average. The one gap is Receptions goblins (68.2% won vs 71.2% fair), where whole-number lines and ties interact.
Standard lines: a weaker test
885 of 924 standard lines sit in the two middle groups, so there's little range to test. Those landed at 47% (fair 51%) and 48% (fair 48%), in line with More's overall 48%. The outer groups hold only 22 and 17 lines, too few to read either way.
Did lines lean More or Less?
| Stat | Lines | Middle line | Actual minus line | Average miss | More won | Fair More |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rec Yds | 356 | 27 | +4.2 | 20.1 | 48.6% | 50.0% |
| Receptions | 219 | 3.5 | +0.1 | 1.6 | 48.0% | 50.1% |
| Rush Yds | 173 | 29.5 | +1.7 | 17.3 | 45.7% | 49.9% |
| Rush+Rec Yds | 91 | 65.5 | +1.4 | 24.4 | 46.2% | 50.2% |
| Pass Yds | 62 | 221 | −1.1 | 61.9 | 48.4% | 49.6% |
| Pass TDs | 26 | 1.5 | +0.1 | 1.0 | 45.5% | 49.4% |
No stat leans. More won 48.0% of 974 graded lines against a fair 50%, a gap of 1.2 standard errors (small enough to be chance). The week-to-week swing (51.5% in Week 1, 44.8% in Week 2) looks bigger than it is: lines in the same game ride one game script, so a week is a smaller sample than its line count suggests.
Watch item: low Rec Yds lines
| Stat | Low line | Middle line | High line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pass TDs | 29% (9) | 56% (9) | 50% (8) |
| Pass Yds | 62% (21) | 38% (21) | 45% (20) |
| Rec Yds | 55% (134) | 49% (133) | 47% (133) |
| Receptions | 46% (75) | 43% (75) | 51% (74) |
| Rush Yds | 46% (61) | 41% (61) | 48% (61) |
| Rush+Rec Yds | 47% (36) | 43% (35) | 54% (35) |
Each stat's lines split into thirds by size (a stand-in for player role). Low Rec Yds lines (role players) went More 55% on 134 lines, the largest lean. That's only about 1.2 standard errors, so it's one to track for 4+ weeks, not act on yet. Blue cells went More more than half the time; orange cells went Less.
Also checked: ties and Underdog lines
About 1 in 5 whole-number lines tied.
About half of Receptions and Pass TD lines were whole numbers. A tie voids the pick and drops the entry to a smaller payout, so a 6-pick becomes a 5-pick. Worth sizing, and worth testing .5 lines on low counts.
Ties by stat
| Stat | Whole-number lines | Of those, tied |
|---|---|---|
| Pass TDs | 54% | 29% |
| Receptions | 49% | 21% |
Yardage lines matched Underdog only 41%–60% of the time.
Every mismatch at kickoff lets a player with both apps take the better number. That's the line-shopper group on Player Groups.
Underdog match by stat
| Stat | Lines | Same line | Average gap to books |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rec Yds | 351 | 60% | 0.43 |
| Rush Yds | 165 | 55% | 0.50 |
| Rush+Rec Yds | 86 | 41% | 0.91 |
| Pass Yds | 62 | 44% | 1.52 |
| Receptions | 45 | 100% | 0.00 |
| Pass TDs | 7 | 100% | 0.00 |
Most beatable lines at kickoff
| Week | Game | Player | Stat | PrizePicks | Books | Fair side · chance | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | NYG @ LA | Tutu Atwell | Rec Yds | 3.5 | 6.5 | More 70.1% | 19 | Fair side won |
| 1 | CLE @ JAX | Travis Hunter | Rec Yds | 7.5 | 11.5 | More 64.6% | 8 | Fair side won |
| 1 | DAL @ NYG | KaVontae Turpin | Rush+Rec Yds | 15.5 | 13.5 | Less 63.4% | 8 | Fair side won |
| 1 | DEN @ KC | Adam Trautman | Rec Yds | 3.5 | 4.5 | More 59.8% | 10 | Fair side won |
| 1 | TB @ CIN | Cade Otton | Receptions | 3 | 3.5 | More 59.5% | 3 | Tie (void) |
| 1 | TB @ CIN | Ted Hurst III | Rec Yds | 17.5 | 22.5 | More 59.5% | 36 | Fair side won |
| 1 | DAL @ NYG | Tyrone Tracy Jr. | Rush Yds | 19.5 | 16.5 | Less 59.3% | 14 | Fair side won |
| 2 | NYG @ LA | Blake Corum | Rec Yds | 3.5 | 2.5 | Less 58.8% | 13 | Fair side lost |
| 1 | DEN @ KC | J.K. Dobbins | Rec Yds | 3.5 | 4.5 | More 58.4% | 0 | Fair side lost |
| 1 | BUF @ HOU | Kayshon Boutte | Receptions | 2 | 1.5 | Less 58.4% | 1 | Fair side won |
| 1 | CLE @ JAX | Bhayshul Tuten | Receptions | 2 | 1.5 | Less 58.4% | 1 | Fair side won |
| 2 | CAR @ ATL | Jonathon Brooks | Rush+Rec Yds | 35.5 | 32.5 | Less 58.1% | 11 | Fair side won |